Should NFL Bettors Bet the Over/Under?
Knowing Key Numbers in Over/Under Betting is Crucial
Over/under betting in sports betting is a pretty simple concept. For the game, a total number of points, runs or goals is set by the oddsmaker. The bettor chooses whether the teams will combine for more or less than the number or line.
A bet on more than the line is called the over. A wager on a total less than the line is the under. Typically the odds for either bet are -110, meaning you have to bet $110 to win $100.
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The goal is for the line to be set to attract a similar number of bettors on both sides. If that ends up being the case, then the operator makes roughly 10% of the handle.
NFL Over/Under Wagers
In the NFL, the over/under is one of the three standard betting lines listed for every game. Bettors can wager on the point spread, the moneyline, or the over/under. It’s a fun bet to make, and in many cases, it isn’t decided until late in the game.
In most sportsbooks and betting sites, bettors can include the over/under as part of a parlay bet. For instance, in Week 6 of the NFL, the Packers are 1.5-point favorites at America’s Bookie, with an over/under of 54.5 points. If a bettor likes the Packers to win 35-30, they can parlay the spread bet and the over/under.
There are also other bets involving over/unders in addition to the final score of the game. Many sportsbooks offer over/under lines on each team for the game. Depending where you bet on sports depends on the betting menu for each betting market.
They may also have over/under lines on the total score for the first half. You might also find prop bets for each quarter and other interesting wagers involving the score.
Over/Under in 2020 NFL Games
In the first four weeks of the season, scoring in NFL games was way up over 2019. It took the sportsbooks and bettors a few weeks to catch up to the trend. Heading into Week 5, bettors on the over had a healthy 35-23-5 edge on the under.
In Week 5, things started to balance out a bit, as the under bets prevailed 8-6. That still leaves the over with a 41-31-5 edge for the season. We’ll have to see if the oddsmakers reversed the early trend or just interrupted it for a week.
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Should NFL bettors wager on the over/under? Given the amount of data available for analysis, it’s not a bad bet to make.
Just like any other NFL bet, however, it’s tough to win consistently. There is a lot of money bet on the NFL and a lot of resources devoted to setting lines.
There are teams that get on hot streaks and consistently beat the over, which has happened frequently in 2020. It’s also helpful to look at specific offense versus defense matchups that could result in a good opportunity. If you like to bet on the NFL, there really isn’t any reason not to include over/under bets. Just remember that you’ll rarely get positive odds, giving up the -110 on virtually every bet. That means you’ll need to win 55% of the time to break even. This season across the board, $10 bets on the over would have netted $90, so it can be done.
